The Cock-up Theory of History

****
Many years ago, a council colleague (and retired economics teacher) referred to the two theories of history in a council debate. The two theories are "The Conspiracy Theory" and "The Cock-up Theory" - and John Cole, the Liberal Democrat councillor concerned proclaimed his adherence to the latter.

Here - in an article in New Geography is a little more on the matter:

In economics, ‘interest’ – whether it be self-interest or interest group pressure – is the ‘safe’ explanation for outcomes that are detrimental to the public. If interest group pressure (or even populism) is behind a bad policy decision, then it is not a ‘mistake.’ Rather, it is an intentional, rational decision as described by Chicago School economist and Nobel laureate George Stigler. However, if a policy decision is the result of bad judgment, then Stigler cannot explain it. Brazilian economist Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira suggests that the relevant variable in this case is incompetence. Incompetence is an independent explanatory variable; it cannot be explained in rational or historical terms.

Simply not having much of a clue what you're doing lies at the back of the great disasters - coupled, as ever, with the vanity of great men. Problems are intentional but consequential on our incompetence, on human capacity for the cock up. The whole article is worth a read.

....