tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9172766774137902766.post8819841722142973545..comments2023-12-23T09:28:20.869+00:00Comments on The View from Cullingworth: Why Jonathan Portes should shut up about migration - from someone who agrees with him...Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9172766774137902766.post-39653612872280896502013-10-20T15:14:22.771+01:002013-10-20T15:14:22.771+01:00You say you basically agree with JP. If it was wit...You say you basically agree with JP. If it was within your power to reverse or delay the right of Romanians and Bulgarians to come here next year, would you do so?Lukehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14014996272817759191noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9172766774137902766.post-37466522994208326922013-10-20T12:49:35.818+01:002013-10-20T12:49:35.818+01:00You're free to dislike my tone, of course, but...You're free to dislike my tone, of course, but on the facts this doesn't make a lot of sense. You say:<br /><br />And then, without presenting any facts, Portes then makes this sweeping statement:<br /> <br />"So, once again, we are left with the conclusion that in the absence of immigration the public finances would be in an even worse state – we'd be spending somewhat less, but we'd lose even more than that on tax, both in the short and the long run, as the OBR has pointed out."<br /><br />But of course I reference the OBR, and link in the original blog to this: <br /><br />http://niesr.ac.uk/blog/migration-and-public-finances-long-run-obrs-fiscal-sustainability-report#.Ulu0C1DItzM<br /><br />Plenty of facts and analysis there backing up the "sweeping statement". <br /><br />Similarly:<br /><br />This simply doesn’t prove the point that Portes is making, certainly not in the short run and absolutely not in the case of migrants from Eastern Europe.Given that most of these recent immigrants are in low paid work, the amount paid in is less and many will be receiving in-work benefits (tax credits, housing benefit) and universal benefits (child benefits). So the fact of them working does not mean that they are net contributors to the system.<br /><br />Again, that's why I referenced other studies, and linked to this one: <br /><br />http://www.voxeu.org/article/fiscal-effects-a8-migration-uk<br /><br />It's a little odd to accuse someone of making unsubstantiated statements when they provide well-signposted references to published research, which you don't seem to have read. <br /><br />Jonathan Porteshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11900237767195255134noreply@blogger.com