A polite request from Yorkshire to David Skelton and Policy Exchange

It’s all well and good talking as if the Conservative Party has any history of electing MPs in Durham – here’s David Skelton from Policy Exchange:

I was brought up in the former steel working town of Consett in County Durham. Like many working class towns across the North, it was felt that if you were born and brought up in Consett, the Conservatives were not the party for you.

They were regarded as the party of the South and the party of the rich. To many people in Consett, the Tory party was the party that had presided over the closure of the steelworks and behaved as though it didn’t care about the social consequences. Many in the town still associate Conservatives with deindustrialisation, unemployment and the social problems that followed in their wake.

But the truth is that County Durham (other than Darlington) hasn’t elected a Conservative since before the first world war - not voting Tory isn't exactly a recent phenomenon. Some parts of the County such as Bishop Auckland have never elected a Tory. Not even once.

It seems to me that our strategy should concentrate on places where there’s a slight chance of us getting elected – which means that David, instead of getting all misty eyed about his upbringing and pontificating about industrial policy, should come and talk to those of us who actually have got Conservatives elected in Yorkshire.

If Policy Exchange and David Skelton want to learn about the North perhaps they could do what the Joseph Rowntree Trust has done – set up shop in Bradford with a ten year research programme looking in some detail at the needs, wants and aspirations of communities in the area.

It would be better than sounding grand from the glories of London.

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Election 2010: Seats to Watch #3: Will the Lib Dems break through in those Northern Cities?

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I’ve looked at two sets of Conservative target seats – in the coalfields and in what I called “inner-outer” London. This set of seats is of Liberal Democrat targets in the North of England – where Labour is defending.

For a long while the Liberal Democrats have had a strong powerbase in Northern cities – at present they control Liverpool, Sheffield, Hull and Newcastle. However, this strength has never translated into success at General Elections. The old Liberal Party got David Alton elected in Liverpool and the party have won Manchester Withington, Sheffield Hallam and Leeds North West. A key test for the Liberal Democrats at the forthcoming election is whether they can translate their local success into the election of MPs.

Liverpool Wavertree will be a seat with a lot of attention – at least judging by the 500+ comments on the UK Polling Report thread on the seat! Labour’s Jane Kennedy held the seat in 2005 but is retiring. Labour’s candidate is from London and with boundary changes the nominal majority is just 3,038 requiring a swing of under 4.5% for the Lib Dems to make the gain. With 54% of the vote in the 2008 local elections they really ought to! Expect a campaign laden with scouse vitriol from all sides (plus a little borderline racism wrapped up as anti-Zionism directed at Labour’s Luciana Berger).

Oldham East & Saddleworth is held for Labour by Phil Woolas, the Immigration Minister – boundary changes favour labour and the nominal majority is 4,087 requiring a swing of 5%. The seat stretches from Oldham’s multiethnic inner suburbs out onto the attractive South Pennine moorlands – factors that meant the old Littleborough & Saddleworth seat was a Tory seat in the 1980s. Will be a close run thing with Lib Dem success depending on how much they can squeeze the substantial Tory vote – local elections suggest win with the Lib Dems on 52% and labour in 3rd with just 20%.

The City of Durham must be right at the top of Liberal Democrat expectations. Although held by labour since the 1930s (like most of the North’s mining seats) the majority is just 3,274 requiring a swing of just 3.7% for a Lib Dem gain). Local elections show the Lib Dems building powerful position with 41% of the vote and 15 of the 22 councillors but there’s no Tory vote to squeeze and Labour has a reliable bedrock of support.

With Nick Clegg looking pretty safe in Hallam, the Liberal Democrats can direct their efforts to Sheffield Central where they have an outside chance of winning especially since former Sports Minister, Richard Caborn is standing down. With boundary changes the notional result is 4,807 requiring an 8% swing. Local election results put the Lib Dems on 42% to Labour’s 30% but an active Green campaign may not do Paul Scriven the council leader any favours.

Newcastle-upon-Tyne North is the most marginal of the City’s seats (just ahead of Chief Whip, Nick Brown’s East) and is very much a long shot for the Liberal Democrats. The notional majority is some 6,744 and even with current MP Doug Henderson retiring it’s a tough call for the Lib Dems. However, their local government performances suggest a strong chance (52% of the vote in 2008 and all but two councillors). However, the Labour machine will be working hard here and it will not be the straightforward gain it seems like on paper.

With a weaker Labour Party and voters out to punish them this may be the year when the Liberal Democrats do break through in the urban North – these aren’t the only places there’s also Bradford East, Burnley and Hull West & Hessle where the party fancies its chances.

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