Poor by-election results - why the Conservatives should worry but not panic

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Various folk are getting excited over the rather poor showing of the Conservatives in recent local by-elections. Even leaving aside the arrant nonsense from twits like Gerald Warner (what is it about men who wear coats with velvet collars?) normally sensible folk like Iain Dale are expressing a degree of worry. Here are a few thoughts:

The Conservative’s should worry – not about Labour winning back a few once safe wards, that’s to be expected given the scale of Labour’s collapse in the 2008 and 2009 local elections. The Party should worry about a continuing loss of seats to Liberal Democrats, Independents and special interest groups.

A comparison with 1996 & 1997 helps – in that time (remember just prior to the wipe out of 1997) the Conservatives made 52 gains in local council by-elections against 10 losses including gains from Labour in Dover on the same day we lost the parliamentary seat

The 1996 and 1997 gains show exactly the same pattern as we see today with the Governing Party winning back seats from all other parties and from independents. Indeed, the Conservatives appear to have done rather better than Labour is doing at present

The Conservative Party has not always been that well organised in local by-elections –too often the Party struggles to mobilise wider support and doesn’t do the leg work in places local supporters think of as “unwinnable”. There is room to learn from the effectiveness of Liberal Democrat mobilisation for these by-elections – we have seen in places like Leeds just how much ground can be shifted in a short period of time by hard-hitting (and often pretty cynical) campaigning on the ground.

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