West Yorkshire - what opinion polls might mean in our marginals

I've been wasting a little time doing some psephology - trying to get a better handle on what the current opinion polling might affect the outcomes in West Yorkshire's cluster of marginal constituencies. My little model (and I won't bore you with the details except to say is applies the variation from 2005 actual results implicit in the current polling. So here are the results using Saturday's YouGov rolling poll:

Bradford East: Liberal Democrat Gain (maj.1118)

Bradford West: Conservative Gain (maj. 1369)

Calder Valley: Conservative Gain (maj. 3867)

Colne Valley: Conservative Gain (maj. 2922 over Lib Dems)

Dewsbury: Conservative Gain (maj. 241)

Elmet & Rothwell: Conservative Gain (maj. 333)

Halifax: Conservative Gain (maj. 1097)

Keighley: Conservative Gain (maj. 757)

Leeds NE: Labour Hold (maj. 1439)

Leeds NW: Lib Dem Hold (maj. 6450 over Conservatives)

Pudsey: Conservative Gain (maj. 567)

Shipley: Conservative Hold (maj. 5313)

I'm not going to update this every day but you get the gist I'm sure - most of the Tory key targets look likely to pretty close run affairs. There's no doubt that the effort on the ground - the 'get out the vote' effort, the canvassing, the knocking up, the local campaign will be important. Right now, the Conservatives and Lib Dems seem ahead - more leaflets, more posters, more positivity. Nevertheless there's all to play for in many of these places.

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