Tuesday 16 June 2020

We need to plan for cars not against them.




"...condemning their residents to car-dependent lifestyles."
Just about every bit of published thinking by transport and planning organisations contains some version or other of the statement above. We are told that the car is a uniquely awful thing, that the idea of personalised and individual transport is bad, and that we should create places that don't require people to have or use a car.

The snippet above comes from a report by "Transport for New Homes" that looks at the government's plans for what it calls Garden Villages. Now I've some sympathy with criticising these mini versions of a new town because it seems an especially expensive way to deliver local and social infrastructure when all of it is already available in existing small towns and villages. But I'm not joining into the "cars are bad" message that dominates much of what passes for transport and planning thought these days.

There are, when it comes to thinking about cars, two dominant thoughts from these planners: firstly that car infrastructure creates new demand for car journeys; and secondly that car infrastructure takes up too much space. I'm quite purposely setting aside the environmental arguments since we have an established route to eliminate carbon emissions from vehicles over the next thirty years. Coupled with the continued improvement in the efficiency of existing engine technology, the car really doesn't represent a major contributor to carbon emissions over the long-term.

It's long been noted that, ceteris paribus, the creation of new road infrastructure does not, at the system level, eliminate congestion. It is strongly argued, therefore, that new roads create traffic. What is never asked is why this happens. After all, most journeys (by whatever means) are done for a purpose - to get somewhere, to visit something or someone, to deliver something. We can, therefore, assume that the new traffic on the new road represents activity that would previously have been foregone because the congested roads acted as a disincentive. Moreover, moving from congestion at a capacity of X to congestion at a capacity of 2X represents a huge contribution to the economy (on the assumption that most of the things being consumed as a result of the previously forgone journey have an economic value) not to mention people's liberty.

When people argue against new infrastructure because it would generate new traffic, they are in essence arguing against economic growth, choice and freedom. Such folk prefer to suppress activity purely on the argument that the very fact of cars on a road is a bad thing. Yet people's preferred method of travel beyond the very local (or the very distant) is to use a car. The private car provides flexibility, storage, responsiveness and, perhaps more significantly, tends to take us from where we are now directly to where we want to be at the end of the journey. The purpose of not allowing new road infrastructure is to use the suppressed demand to try and force people into using other forms of transport. Not only is this illiberal but there's very little evidence that it's stated aim of modal shift is met.

Alongside this suppression of demand and use of congestion as a lever to force modal change (without, it might be said, any appreciation of how much non-car infrastructure would be needed for this to make any difference), is the idea that cars take up too much space. Some of this is a reflection of road networks in dense urban environments, you'll all have seen the cute infographic shoing how much less space bicycles and buses use compared to the monstrous evil that is the motor car. But it's also a reflection of the familiar NIMBY arguments against development - "you're concreting over the countryside", that plaintive cry of NIMBYs opposed to roads.

The land cover atlas of the UK is produced by Sheffield University tells us that the UK's highway and rail network covers just 0.05% of the nation's land area. This is just slightly more than the area given over to fruit orchards. For a further comparison, 9% of the UK's land area is peat bog (these are very important, bigger and better carbon traps than the rainforest). We think that roads take up a lot of land because we spend a lot of time on those roads. Next time, however, you fly (assuming they've not sopped us doing that too) into the UK have a think about what you see out the window. It isn't a vista of an endless built up environment but rather one utterly dominated by open country side - 92% of the UK is not urban, industrial, highways or rail. The idea that cars take up too much land is, quite simply, an urban myth.

The anti-car ideology that dominates transport and urban planning is extremely damaging, against the economic and social interests of the population, and based on a false proposition that we can easily switch from the car to other modes of transport. This isn't to argue that we shouldn't invest in infrastructure for rail, bus, cycles and walking, but rather to suggest that our transport investments need to reflect the actual expressed preferences of the public (not from polling but from their actual daily consumption behaviour).

There are many reasons why Garden Villages are a lazy planning policy cop out but "car-dependent lifestyles" aren't one of them. Much more important is dislocation from existing social networks and the creation of new community infrastructure rather than making better use the infrastructure that's already there. By increasing the catchment of local centres (villages and small towns) we improve the sustainability of those places - sensible urban extensions inproportion to the existing community can achieve this whereas the Garden Villages envisage (even if they fail to deliver) a new centre with new social infrastructure. But attacking these developments purely on the basis that people who go to live there will prefer to use a car is wrong and perpetuates a damaging, one-eyed, public transport obsessed transport planning environment.

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3 comments:

  1. An interesting blog. Let's start with the implied political context: a very important and almost never mentioned study by a think-tank in the late 1970s showed something unexpected, that voters who had a car, a property, a personal share account voted much more often to the right than those who travelled by public transport, rented a place, had an occupational pension, *even at the same income level*.
    That is higher income people who travelled by public transport, rented a place, had an occupational pension voted more often to the left than the others, which shifted relatively few votes, but most importantly lower income people who had a car, a property, a personal share account, even if all of them were quite modest, vote more often to the right than the others, which could shift a lot of votes. Thus was thatcherism born, and it has been part of thatcherite policies to undermine public transport, rented tenure, occupational pensions ever since.

    As to the arguments in this page spending taxpayer funds to gift more and better roads to car owners does not seem to me to deprive them of choice and freedom in any proper sense of the word: they can still choose between various modes of public transport, and can still use their own car, even if less often or more slowly.

    If handing out more taxpayer money to special-interest-group car owners for more and better roads is necessary to extend their choice and freedom, then the same can be said for handing out more taxpayer money to gift more and better schools and nurseries to parents, more and better GP practices and NHS clinics to everybody but those who can afford going private, more and better bus and trains services for those who don't own cars like most commuters, more and better social-rent housing for everybody; all of these increase the choice and freedom of large numbers of people.

    The argument has to be why handing out more taxpayers funds for more or better road to benefit the car owner special interest group should have priority over handing out more taxpayer funds for more or better schools, nurseries, NHS facilities, buses and trains, social housing to benefit the choice and freedom of parents and everybody else.
    If you want a more tory argument, why more and better roads should have priority over more and better armed forces, emergency services, security services, state pensions and care homes for older voters.

    The argument ideally should be different from "because car users then vote Conservative or LibDem or New Labour, but nursery, NHS, buses, trains, social housing users vote Labour". :-)

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  2. «our transport investments need to reflect the actual expressed preferences of the public »

    The expressed preferences are for whatever is cheap, that is whatever the government subsidizes. If taxpayer funds subsidize car ownership and urban sprawl, that becomes very popular, and viceversa.

    «We think that roads take up a lot of land because we spend a lot of time on those roads.»

    But as you say elsewhere the point of roads is to generate urban sprawl, to enable huge low density suburbs and exurbs like in some vast USA states ("By increasing the catchment of local centres (villages and small towns) we improve the sustainability of those places - sensible urban extensions").

    «92% of the UK is not urban, industrial, highways or rail.»

    While I disagree with other arguments, but there is a point to them, this is *ridiculous*, because in a lot of that 92% nobody wants to live, like highlands, moors, or where there are no jobs. In the Home Counties and and London, where most of the population wants to live, and large parts of the "north" (for historical reasons), there is quite a dense network of roads and built areas, to the point that many people are choosing to live in houses on flood plains.

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  3. BTW I agree that there is a maniacal "green" lobby that is opposed to cars, aeroplanes, etc., on principle, and I disagree with that, but those are often "Middle England" heritage-loving conservatives :-), whether they have dreadlocks or highlights. They regard more roads, more urban sprawl, as infringing on their peace and quiet, on their enjoyment of their comfortable situations. The same happened in many Home Counties towns and villages when better transport, whether trains or roads, especially between WW1 and WW2, brought the brash urban middle and working classes to them, disturbing often centuries old social stratifications, and giving birth to the NIMBY movement.

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