Folk memory and voting behaviour - why protest votes aren't all you might think

My Dad lived for the last part of his life on the Isle of Sheppey, so I always take a look at elections results there. Here's the result for the ward he lived in from last week:

There were three contested seats in Sheppey Central ward.

• Elliott Matthew Jayes, Swale Independents, 1019 votes
• Peter John MacDonald, Conservative, 488 votes
• Pete Neal, Conservative, 461 votes
• Trudi Louise Nicholls, Conservative, 325 votes
• Chris Shipley, Green Party, 383 votes
• Paul David Steele, Labour, 339 votes
• Mad Mike Young, The Official Monster Raving Loony Party, 330 votes

Elliot Matthew Jayes, Swale Independents, Peter John MacDonald, Conservative, and Pete Neal, Conservative were elected to Sheppey Central.

One suspects that, had the Swale Independents stood a full slate of candidates they'd have won all three seats (and a surprisingly good performance from Official MRLP - Sheppey is a hotbed of political luncacy). On the face of it, given the seat was held by the Conservatives, this was a shock result - matched by ten other independent gains across Swale. But maybe not - here's the 2007 result:

And in 2008, Independents won a further seven seats on Swale District Council. In this part of the world, there's a tradition of the alternative to a conservative being a local independent - my Dad was wont to say that, just maybe, we should have more independent councillors.

We saw last Thursday the same effect across North Yorkshire where the most popular chosen vehicle to kick Conservatives with was a vote for Independents. Elsewhere in the country the popular choice was voting Liberal Democrat but, again, the local folk memory determined where this would happen - almost always where the Lib Dems have, at some point, controlled or been in leadership on the local council. Here are some of that party's big wins this year:

Winchester (Lib Dem control 1995-2004 & 2010-2011)
North Norfolk (Lib Dem control 2003-2011)
Bath & NE Somerset (Lib Dem minority leadership 1995-2011)
Hinckley & Bosworth (Lib Dem control 2007-2015)
North Devon (Lib Dem control 1991-2007)
Chelmsford (Lib Dem control 1988-1991, 1995-1999)
Vale of White Horse (Lib Dem control 1995-2011)
Mole Valley (Lib Dem control 1994-1995)

Nearly everywhere we look the local folk memory would have predicted whether Independents or Liberal Democrats would be the choice of disgruntled voters. Elsewhere the results seem a lot more stable (they probably aren't) with it being harder to gauge who gets the protest - in remain voting areas without a folk memory of Lib Dem or Independent voting the protest is as likely to go to the Greens whereas in more leave inclined areas it's UKIP or similar (in places like Bradford South there's a less savoury folk memory in voting - the BNP).

So the great Liberal Democrat performance in many regards reflects a recovery from what might be called the 'Clegg Collapse' of 2011 when the party lost 690 seats. There are some results from last Thursday - Cotswold, for example - where the Lib Dems are building new strength (in very strong remain voting areas as a rule) but mostly we've seen the public's desire to punish the Conservatives without voting Labour reflected in wins dependent on the folk memory of past strength. In a weird old way, it's a reminder that we're all pretty conservative in our voting behaviour!

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Fixing the system: political parties, funding and privilege.

***

As you will know, dear readers, I have a slightly jaundiced view of the manner in which political parties are obtaining a constitutional position that extends beyond their established role as private organisations established for the purpose of promoting a particular cause.

We no longer need to clump together in class-based groups so as to protect our interests – we’re all pretty much middle class with much the same interests as each other. And in the main this interest involves keeping the Government and its agents out of our lives, getting on with raising our families, enjoying the house & garden on which we’ve spent all the cash the government leaves us after tax and not bothering our neighbours overmuch with our individual problems.

In truth we don’t need political parties. We don’t need to spend taxpayers’ money on sustaining the 1% of the adult population who join those parties. And we don’t need special protections or status in law for such bodies. If people like me want to join them that’s our business and we should not expect any privileged status or treatment for the organisation just because they are engaged in politics.

In the past few days, the ‘Committee on Standards in Public Life’ began a consultation on the funding of political parties – you can go play with this consultation on-line here. Now, although I care deeply about the manner of party funding, I am just as concerned about the assumptions being made by the Committee in framing the terms of their consultation.

Political parties are an essential part of the sound operation of the democratic process. They offer individuals a way to participate directly in our democracy and are the means by which voters choose between alternative policies and candidates at elections. Through government and effective opposition, political parties shape public policy. If political parties are to operate effectively it is essential that they are adequately and appropriately funded but it is also important that the means by which this funding is provided commands public confidence.

This implies a privileged position for political parties within our constitution – they are “essential”, they offer individuals “a way to participate” and are the means of choosing between “alternative policies”. And because of this particular, gatekeeper role Government should concern itself with the funding of political parties.

I don’t agree. I do not accept that political parties have any special position of importance and should be given any special advantage over other organisations – however those other organisations are constituted. The fact that the Labour Party is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the trade union movement means that I will never vote for it. But if those wealthy, protectionist organisations choose to fund a political party, that is their business – at least until the Government gives political parties a special position within our constitution. Sadly, the previous Labour government gave just such a privileged position to political parties and in doing so granted an advantage to the larger parties despite their rapidly declining membership. Today less than 1% of the population are members of political parties – and that includes all the funny little left-wing and right-wing grouplets that come and go like mayflies.

Finally, rather than focusing on income – on where a political party gets its cash – we should instead look at spending, at what the party spends its cash on doing. I have long argued that election spending should be exclusively at the constituency level – all national campaign funding should be banned and a reasonable limit on local spending used. That would get away from the “business/unions/rich foreigners are buying the election” arguments and would make independent and local candidates far more valuable and likely.

But this won’t happen now, will it!

....

Fixing the system: political parties, funding and privilege.

***

As you will know, dear readers, I have a slightly jaundiced view of the manner in which political parties are obtaining a constitutional position that extends beyond their established role as private organisations established for the purpose of promoting a particular cause.

We no longer need to clump together in class-based groups so as to protect our interests – we’re all pretty much middle class with much the same interests as each other. And in the main this interest involves keeping the Government and its agents out of our lives, getting on with raising our families, enjoying the house & garden on which we’ve spent all the cash the government leaves us after tax and not bothering our neighbours overmuch with our individual problems.

In truth we don’t need political parties. We don’t need to spend taxpayers’ money on sustaining the 1% of the adult population who join those parties. And we don’t need special protections or status in law for such bodies. If people like me want to join them that’s our business and we should not expect any privileged status or treatment for the organisation just because they are engaged in politics.

In the past few days, the ‘Committee on Standards in Public Life’ began a consultation on the funding of political parties – you can go play with this consultation on-line here. Now, although I care deeply about the manner of party funding, I am just as concerned about the assumptions being made by the Committee in framing the terms of their consultation.

Political parties are an essential part of the sound operation of the democratic process. They offer individuals a way to participate directly in our democracy and are the means by which voters choose between alternative policies and candidates at elections. Through government and effective opposition, political parties shape public policy. If political parties are to operate effectively it is essential that they are adequately and appropriately funded but it is also important that the means by which this funding is provided commands public confidence.

This implies a privileged position for political parties within our constitution – they are “essential”, they offer individuals “a way to participate” and are the means of choosing between “alternative policies”. And because of this particular, gatekeeper role Government should concern itself with the funding of political parties.

I don’t agree. I do not accept that political parties have any special position of importance and should be given any special advantage over other organisations – however those other organisations are constituted. The fact that the Labour Party is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the trade union movement means that I will never vote for it. But if those wealthy, protectionist organisations choose to fund a political party, that is their business – at least until the Government gives political parties a special position within our constitution. Sadly, the previous Labour government gave just such a privileged position to political parties and in doing so granted an advantage to the larger parties despite their rapidly declining membership. Today less than 1% of the population are members of political parties – and that includes all the funny little left-wing and right-wing grouplets that come and go like mayflies.

Finally, rather than focusing on income – on where a political party gets its cash – we should instead look at spending, at what the party spends its cash on doing. I have long argued that election spending should be exclusively at the constituency level – all national campaign funding should be banned and a reasonable limit on local spending used. That would get away from the “business/unions/rich foreigners are buying the election” arguments and would make independent and local candidates far more valuable and likely.

But this won’t happen now, will it!

....