Loads of other people will have a great deal to say about the local elections so I won't join in the debate about how Liberal Democrats taking control of Mole Valley represents a seismic shift in English politics. Or that the results reflect some sort of 'opinion poll' on Brexit (or the lack of Brexit) - although it's mad to suggest that this dominating national issue didn't have a major impact on people's voting, or not voting, choices. Anyone who knocked on doors will have experienced people - lots of people - exploding with anger when asked about their voting intention.
But it's not just Brexit, there are other trends and changes that need consideration - the continuing shift away from Labour in the Midlands (and, it now seems, in places like Teeside) and the shift away from Conservatives across the Home Counties (most obvious in the gentrified seaside). It does sometimes seem like nothing has changed - Conservatives are still the biggest party in most of those shire districts and Labour still dominates the cities. But what's less noticeable is that majorities are sharply reduced - where once the dominant party won with 60% of the vote it's now winning with 40% - in Bradford Labour won Royds ward (for lovers of 1980s movies, this is centred on Buttershaw the location for 'Rita, Sue & Bob Too') this year with 43% of the vote compared to 59% in 2012.
Bradford can also illustrate what we might call the 'remainer effect' - Ilkley is safe Conservative territory but also the most remain voting ward in the City (over 70%). Here's this year's result:
In 2012 the Conservatives got 49% of the vote when the Labour candidate was Anne Cryer who'd been the local MP from 1997-2010. Contrast this with another safe Tory ward (the best one) which was strongly leave voting:
The result is almost identical to the 2012 result (58%) although the Green Party did significantly better this year and Labour slightly worse. It is notable that the Greens, despite not making any gains, did very well. We've seen how they did well in wealthy Ilkley, here's Bradford's poorest ward, Tong:
This was a tie - the one vote majority was drawn by lot. Labour have never lost this ward, not even in the great meltdown of 1992 when the Conservatives won every ward in Bradford South. This result, however, probably isn't (unlike Ilkley) down to remain voters - that UKIP vote tells us this is leave territory - but more what I'd call 'Lazy Labour' and a turnout of just 19% plus, depressingly, that Labour's candidate is Asian.
Yesterday's results were a disaster for the two big parties (not in Bradford though) - the Conservatives expected to lose seats but did so on a scale not seen since the mid-1990s. Labour - the beneficiary of Conservative collapse back in the '90s - failed to pick up seats. There were precious few Labour councillors across England's shire districts - after yesterday there are precious fewer and the party still has no councillors at all in dozens of councils. To answer why I'll give the canvasser's feedback - on doorstep after doorstep the conversation went something like this:
Me: Hi
Voter: You're brave!
Me: No, people are lovely...
Voter: Brexit....
Me: Indeed. What a mess. Not Labour surely?
Voter: Corbyn...omg we don't want him
Yes there are lots of local factors and people do vote purposely differently in local elections but these results have been affected by the Conservative government's failure to deliver on a promise we'd leave the EU on 29 April 2019 and by Labour being led by an antisemitic, terrorist fan boy.
.....
2 comments:
As ever really interesting comments - I was particularly surprised with the numbers in Ilkley. This echoes very much what happened in Essex. The Conservative vote collapsed in areas like Chelmsford and the more well to do areas of Southend (Leigh-On-Sea is Ilkley with fishing boats and sand), that are stuffed with middle class professionals. It however held up much better in Basildon and Thurrock. Could this be pointing to some sort of long term realignment with the Conservatives losing middle class, urban/suburban professionals and gaining amongst working class voters in the Midlands and North? Or will thinks revert to normal after Brexit?
Despite what hardcore remainers/brexiters may think, it felt like many voters were annoyed by the general incompetence and chaos - almost reminiscent of the dying days of the Major government. Not doing what you said, changing minds from one week to the next etc came up rather more than backstops or the form of the customs union.
One final thing that has annoyed me in the coverage has been the hailing of the Green performance as some sort of new politics. Certainly in most of the Tory south these have been virtually entirely related to cynical, NIMBY anti housing development campaigns that are as old as the hills. It is interesting to see how they and the Lib Dems will react when in power and having to deal with practical realities.
Very best wishes for your 'retirement'!
Thanks for a thought provoking post. I wonder if the drift away from historically secure support (for Labour in Midlands and NE, for Conservatives in S and SE) is another example of Labour's sudden replacement by SNP. With the main stream media monopoly broken, maybe electors are waking up to the way their locally established parties have been deceiving them? If so, I hope it continues and speeds up.
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