Folk memory and voting behaviour - why protest votes aren't all you might think

My Dad lived for the last part of his life on the Isle of Sheppey, so I always take a look at elections results there. Here's the result for the ward he lived in from last week:

There were three contested seats in Sheppey Central ward.

• Elliott Matthew Jayes, Swale Independents, 1019 votes
• Peter John MacDonald, Conservative, 488 votes
• Pete Neal, Conservative, 461 votes
• Trudi Louise Nicholls, Conservative, 325 votes
• Chris Shipley, Green Party, 383 votes
• Paul David Steele, Labour, 339 votes
• Mad Mike Young, The Official Monster Raving Loony Party, 330 votes

Elliot Matthew Jayes, Swale Independents, Peter John MacDonald, Conservative, and Pete Neal, Conservative were elected to Sheppey Central.

One suspects that, had the Swale Independents stood a full slate of candidates they'd have won all three seats (and a surprisingly good performance from Official MRLP - Sheppey is a hotbed of political luncacy). On the face of it, given the seat was held by the Conservatives, this was a shock result - matched by ten other independent gains across Swale. But maybe not - here's the 2007 result:

And in 2008, Independents won a further seven seats on Swale District Council. In this part of the world, there's a tradition of the alternative to a conservative being a local independent - my Dad was wont to say that, just maybe, we should have more independent councillors.

We saw last Thursday the same effect across North Yorkshire where the most popular chosen vehicle to kick Conservatives with was a vote for Independents. Elsewhere in the country the popular choice was voting Liberal Democrat but, again, the local folk memory determined where this would happen - almost always where the Lib Dems have, at some point, controlled or been in leadership on the local council. Here are some of that party's big wins this year:

Winchester (Lib Dem control 1995-2004 & 2010-2011)
North Norfolk (Lib Dem control 2003-2011)
Bath & NE Somerset (Lib Dem minority leadership 1995-2011)
Hinckley & Bosworth (Lib Dem control 2007-2015)
North Devon (Lib Dem control 1991-2007)
Chelmsford (Lib Dem control 1988-1991, 1995-1999)
Vale of White Horse (Lib Dem control 1995-2011)
Mole Valley (Lib Dem control 1994-1995)

Nearly everywhere we look the local folk memory would have predicted whether Independents or Liberal Democrats would be the choice of disgruntled voters. Elsewhere the results seem a lot more stable (they probably aren't) with it being harder to gauge who gets the protest - in remain voting areas without a folk memory of Lib Dem or Independent voting the protest is as likely to go to the Greens whereas in more leave inclined areas it's UKIP or similar (in places like Bradford South there's a less savoury folk memory in voting - the BNP).

So the great Liberal Democrat performance in many regards reflects a recovery from what might be called the 'Clegg Collapse' of 2011 when the party lost 690 seats. There are some results from last Thursday - Cotswold, for example - where the Lib Dems are building new strength (in very strong remain voting areas as a rule) but mostly we've seen the public's desire to punish the Conservatives without voting Labour reflected in wins dependent on the folk memory of past strength. In a weird old way, it's a reminder that we're all pretty conservative in our voting behaviour!

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Of course the Brexit mess affected this week's election results...thoughts from Bradford

Loads of other people will have a great deal to say about the local elections so I won't join in the debate about how Liberal Democrats taking control of Mole Valley represents a seismic shift in English politics. Or that the results reflect some sort of 'opinion poll' on Brexit (or the lack of Brexit) - although it's mad to suggest that this dominating national issue didn't have a major impact on people's voting, or not voting, choices. Anyone who knocked on doors will have experienced people - lots of people - exploding with anger when asked about their voting intention.

But it's not just Brexit, there are other trends and changes that need consideration - the continuing shift away from Labour in the Midlands (and, it now seems, in places like Teeside) and the shift away from Conservatives across the Home Counties (most obvious in the gentrified seaside). It does sometimes seem like nothing has changed - Conservatives are still the biggest party in most of those shire districts and Labour still dominates the cities. But what's less noticeable is that majorities are sharply reduced - where once the dominant party won with 60% of the vote it's now winning with 40% - in Bradford Labour won Royds ward (for lovers of 1980s movies, this is centred on Buttershaw the location for 'Rita, Sue & Bob Too') this year with 43% of the vote compared to 59% in 2012.

Bradford can also illustrate what we might call the 'remainer effect' - Ilkley is safe Conservative territory but also the most remain voting ward in the City (over 70%). Here's this year's result:

In 2012 the Conservatives got 49% of the vote when the Labour candidate was Anne Cryer who'd been the local MP from 1997-2010. Contrast this with another safe Tory ward (the best one) which was strongly leave voting:

The result is almost identical to the 2012 result (58%) although the Green Party did significantly better this year and Labour slightly worse. It is notable that the Greens, despite not making any gains, did very well. We've seen how they did well in wealthy Ilkley, here's Bradford's poorest ward, Tong:

This was a tie - the one vote majority was drawn by lot. Labour have never lost this ward, not even in the great meltdown of 1992 when the Conservatives won every ward in Bradford South. This result, however, probably isn't (unlike Ilkley) down to remain voters - that UKIP vote tells us this is leave territory - but more what I'd call 'Lazy Labour' and a turnout of just 19% plus, depressingly, that Labour's candidate is Asian.

Yesterday's results were a disaster for the two big parties (not in Bradford though) - the Conservatives expected to lose seats but did so on a scale not seen since the mid-1990s. Labour - the beneficiary of Conservative collapse back in the '90s - failed to pick up seats. There were precious few Labour councillors across England's shire districts - after yesterday there are precious fewer and the party still has no councillors at all in dozens of councils. To answer why I'll give the canvasser's feedback - on doorstep after doorstep the conversation went something like this:

Me: Hi
Voter: You're brave!
Me: No, people are lovely...
Voter: Brexit....
Me: Indeed. What a mess. Not Labour surely?
Voter: Corbyn...omg we don't want him

Yes there are lots of local factors and people do vote purposely differently in local elections but these results have been affected by the Conservative government's failure to deliver on a promise we'd leave the EU on 29 April 2019 and by Labour being led by an antisemitic, terrorist fan boy.

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A comment on Spanish local elections and British apathy!

There are local elections in Spain this weekend - elections which are likely to see a thorough trouncing for the ruling Socialist Party:

According to the election polls, the center-right Partido Popular (PP) will handily defeat the ruling Spanish Socialist Workers Party (PSOE) that may be left without control of any major Spanish city.

But this comment isn't about who will win but about how many of the 370,000 foreign residents in Andalucia will be voting - with the answer being 'not many'. Here are the numbers:

The number of foreigners registered to vote around Andalucia on May 22 stands at 82,483. This means if all the registered foreign voters turn out on the day they would certainly change the political map. The degree of influence however depends on the municipality.

Interestingly, nearly half of the foreigners registered to vote – 40,410 – are resident in Malaga province alone, where there are an incredible 152 foreign candidates hoping to become local councillors.

And half of those voters are British, which means that Spanish politicians are - for perhaps the first time - actively targeting these voters:

In my local town, I believe for the first time ever, one of the major Spanish parties is actively looking to entice non-Spanish residents to vote for them.

The PP candidate sent this message (and arranged a meeting):

The party wishes to present their candidate at the municipal elections, Francisco Góngora Cara, who will stand for mayor of El Ejido, to the foreign residents of El Ejido.

Francisco Góngora in his meetings with local residents appreciates the participation and understanding of the party´s electoral programme for the next four years; he is also calling this meeting in order to know at first hand the worries, needs and aspirations of the foreign population here in El Ejido.

The problem is that - if past form is a guide - most British residents won't be voting either because they're not registered to vote or from apathy. However, not all are so apathetic.

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A question for Peter Oborne - and maybe for central office

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According to Peter Oborne, my election campaign is being centrally directed and is an insult to localism. Well, not mine but Tory local election campaigns in general:

For there is a paradox at the heart of the Conservative campaign. It has been expertly managed by Stephen Gilbert, the Prime Minister’s political secretary. Local candidates have been sent template leaflets which, while leaving space for the insertion of local messages, are in all essentials produced in Conservative HQ. 

I guess I'd better get onto Mr Gilbert (whoever he might be) and ask where my leaflets are then!

This article - and I like Peter Oborne - is a classic example of swallowing whatever arrogant cant some bloke 'close' to the PM tells you. It's utter piffle.

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