Showing posts with label GDP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label GDP. Show all posts

Friday, 13 July 2018

There's been plenty of economic progress since 2008 - you're just not measuring it


The problem with economics, I find, is that too often it becomes trapped inside the limits of what it measures. If we haven't attached a specific monetary value to something then the economist's assumption all too often is that this something therefore has no value. Take childcare for example - government recognises that looking after young children has a cost but only when that looking after is done by an agency external to the family. We therefore provide subsidy to people using that external agency but not to the people who choose to provide the childcare themselves. I may be wrong but it does seem that the driver here - glossed over by debates about getting women back to work (as if looking after children isn't work) - is that the only measure that counts is GDP. And there's a double win by the parent returning to work by using a childcare agency - not only does her return raise GDP because she's in the part of society we measure but the purchase of childcare raises that GDP too. It's taking in eachothers washing on a grand scale but it make the figures look good. Better stills we can throw chaff about women's equality into the mix to make it look like a social good.

One theme popular right now with some economists is the argument that there has been no "progress" since 2008's great crash. Those economists point to per capita GDP proclaiming 'look no increase in productivity' because those figures seem to have stagnated. The problem here is that it's a one-eyed look at people's lives - measuring only the money income and not what that money income gets us. It's true that average incomes haven't risen but to say there has been no progress ("the final crisis of late capitalism") is hard to argue.

Until recently I was a director of a large social housing organisation and, in preparation for the shift to universal credit and the digital-by-default approach it uses, we looked at how ready our customers were for the change, the degree to which they were digitally-enabled. What we found was nearly 9 in 10 of the tenants had access to the Internet, most commonly using a smart-phone. Bear in mind that we are literally dealing with the poorest in society - three-quarters of our tenants relied on benefits. I realised why when I dropped my (expensive) phone in a car park and it smashed.

My temporary fix was to buy - yes buy - a phone for £20 and stick a sim card in it. And this wasn't the cheapest smart-phone. For £25 I had a phone allowing me access (albeit slightly slow) to the whole of the Internet's wonders. I'd venture to suggest that this wasn't possible in 2008 and those poor and vulnerable people in our flats and houses have had their lives made significantly better by being able to afford the benefits of Internet technology previously only available to the wealthy.

Take a walk round your house, look at the things that have changed - become cheaper and better in equal measures. Televisions, fridges, microwave ovens, dishwashers. Open the apps on your cheap smart phone and see the things you've got for free - music streaming, social media, football scores and updates, bus timetables, maps, radio. I've a super little bluetooth speaker, better sound quality than any transistor radio of my youth - cost me £9.99.

Pop down to the supermarket and walk round. Tens of thousands of lines, produce from across the world and at prices little higher than a decade ago. Add in cheaper taxis from Uber, cheap home delivery takeaway food, online retailing driving down costs and prices. Thousands of small changes each one providing a little more value to us as people often for a little less cost.

So when people say "there's no productivity growth" are they really telling the truth? Perhaps - hallelujah - the productivity growth is coming in people's private lives not in the dull Taylorist world of the workplace. The last ten years have seen massive advances in people's lives, what we get for our money means we're better off even if that money's still the same. Today's TV isn't the same as the telly of ten years ago (it's flat, smart and hung on the wall). Today's mobile phone isn't really a phone, it's a computer more powerful than the PCs and laptops of ten years ago.

All this is hard to measure (how to calculate the benefit I get from wasting so much time on Facebook and Twitter) so mostly we don't bother. And this lets people get away with spouting manifest nonsense like this from Delphine Strauss in the FT:
Absolute social mobility — people’s chances of living better than their parents — has worsened almost everywhere since the financial crisis.
Our children and grandchildren are likely to enjoy a vastly better life than us enjoying things we can only speculate about. For sure there's an outside chance of the Marxist wet dream coming about and capitalism completely collapsing but it's one of those sort of outside chances that brought Ford, Zaphod, Arthur and Tricia together - damned close to infinitely improbable. And so long as capitalism continues it will carry on creating, innovating, initiating - doing the thing it has done for three hundred years: making us all happier, healthier and wealthier. Long may it continue.

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Friday, 24 May 2013

So Mr Murphy thinks the UK is a "finance dependent economy"?

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I ask this because Richard Murphy and the folks at "Tax Justice Network" think that the UK is a finance dependent economy. And of course that doing that moving-money-around business that we've been doing since the 18th century is damaging our economy.

Just for clarity - according to UKTI:

The financial services industry accounted for 10% of UK GDP and 11% of UK tax receipts. 

That's it? We're a 'finance dependent economy' at 10% of GDP?

This, it seems to me, is a load of nonsense (something Mr Murphy seems to specialise in) - especially since manufacturing - you know we don't make things anymore, don't you - accounts for a mere 12% of GDP.

This "Finance Curse" is just ideology looking for a theory and then making up some statistics to fit the resulting bias.

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Monday, 18 March 2013

Business & politics - why Heseltine is wrong

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There's a sort of conservatism - let's call it the "business right" - that sees politics through the prism of a thing called either "business and industry" or else "business and commerce". This viewpoint produces familiar comments such as:

"We need more businessmen in politics"

And:

"Government needs to be more businesslike"

Or indeed any number of variants on this theme where the essential premise is that "business administration" is somehow a superior construct to "public administration". And, this being so, that we have only to introduce such administration to government to bring about a miraculous transformation in the efficiency and effectiveness of public services.

Moreover, by bringing in business people, we get a sudden rush of initiative, enterprise and other fabulous business virtues. Thus we get boards established, run on corporate principles and populated by private sector folk - the holy grail of public services and public investment being "business-led" is met. And we rejoice for it will be but a short while before the benefits of such initiative is felt by all!

This is the essence of Michael Heseltine's politics. The lion-maned, millionaire businessman (and politician) does not believe in free markets, free trade and free enterprise. Heseltine believes in "business", in industrial strategies, in subsidies, in picking winners. Above all, Heseltine believes that government should harken to the cries of the business establishment and fund their schemes (while putting those business 'leaders' on the boards that administer those programmes).

And it seems like the Coalition plans to adopt Heseltine's approach:

"In line with Lord Heseltine’s report, today we have also announced a package of wider support that is a big vote of confidence for our industrial strategy, particularly the aerospace, automotive and agri- technology sectors. This support not only gives businesses certainty, but shows the Government is determined to back those sectors where Britain can deliver and compete on a global scale in partnership with industry."

Weirdly, Heseltine pretends that all this is somehow radical, new and change-making. It's almost as if the old interventionist has written George Osborne's script for him:

 “We asked Lord Heseltine to do what he does best: challenge received wisdom and give us bold ideas on how to bring government and industry together. He did just that, and that is why we are backing his ideas today.”

I fail to see anything at all in Heseltine's proposals that "challenge received wisdom" or indeed do anything but repeat what Heseltine has proposed off and on since the 1970s. Hand control of planning to unelected boards, pour money into regeneration, create new regional quangos and define a privileged set of industries that benefit from government largess (chiefly the property development industry).

In the North we have had thirty years and more of this 'partnership with industry'. It hasn't delivered salvation - indeed with each passing year the North slips a little further behind the rest of the nation. It's true that some already successful business folk get to sit on grand boards - the latest being Local Economic Partnerships - but these boards achieve little even when (as with the Regional Development Agencies) they're given loads of money to spend.

Challenging received wisdom would have meant a very different approach. Rather than a snuggly little relationships with the grandees of big businesses, we might work instead with the real enterprise of millions. Instead of a grand board proposing sweeping nonsense about "green industry", "creating the technologies of the future" and other such tommyrot, we might have teams of coaches working with real people in the communities of the North. Helping people realise their aspirations, navigating start up businesses through the thickets of red tape, linking them to networks of other businesses and building a new economy on real enterprise rather than random guesses about "those sectors where Britain can deliver and compete".

This isn't about whether GDP or GVA grows but more about helping Mary, Steve, Iqbal and Samara to get their idea to work. It's about helping a bunch of young people without great qualifications to achieve something of their aspirations - whether that's to be a singer on a cruise ship or to run a successful computer repair business.

The "business right" - rather like the Fabian left - does not recognise free markets but only business markets. We're in a 'global race' rather than a peaceful, pleasant exchange of value with others. Countries, regions, cities, even neighbourhoods, 'compete' - that Porterian 'dog eat dog' philosophy dominates thinking. At no point do we consider that the object isn't actually competition but the successful operation of comparative advantage.

We have a government set in the belief - the hubris - that there are a set of levers that, if pulled in the right pattern, will result in success. And the rhetoric of liberty, of allowing people the space to succeed, is pushed aside in favour of a business-led quangos and investment in privileged sectors.

I have only one prediction. Just like every other time we've followed Michael Heseltine's advice, every time we've adopted "business-led" regional strategies, these policies will fail.

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