Nick "Crazy" Clegg loses the plot

I am stocking up the extensive cellars at Cooke Towers with essentials – canned foods, batteries, dried mushrooms, red wine and so on. I intend to be ready for the future that is facing us. The great sage, Nick Clegg has warned:

The Liberal Democrat leader said he feared "serious social strife" if an administration with minimal support raised taxes, laid off public sector workers and froze wages.

Taking his cue from St Vince “Jeremiah” Cable, young Nick is predicting riots, looting and thousands taking to the streets to protest.

Now I don’t know about you but this reads to me as the utterings of a man wholly unfit to be put in charge of anything – let alone someone who should be allowed anywhere near any sort of lever linked to even the remotest outpost of power.

If there are to be any riots – and I doubt this somehow – they’ll be because smug, euro-fanatical greenies like Nick Clegg have clobbered ordinary people once too often. It will be the price of petrol – or something similar – that will send people onto the streets not that a few thousand diversity managers, five-a-day co-ordinators and climate change policy officers have lost their jobs.

Sadly, Nick and Vince are so desperate to get jobs, big offices and fancy cars after the election that they’ve swallowed Labour’s hung parliament strategy hook, line and sinker. Don’t you understand Nick – Gordon knows Labour can’t win and wants a hung parliament so he can keep his mitts on the keys to Number Ten!

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Report from the Front - canvassing in Cullingworth

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Canvassing in Cullingworth today was – as it always is – a really pleasant experience. Met lots of my lovely neighbours, enjoyed chatting about their gardens, children and the state of our potholes – plus a bit of national politics thrown in where folk insisted! The morning concluded with Grant’s excellent pies and peas – what could set you up better for a further hour or two of doorknocking.

Main observations:

Really impressed by the number of people planning to vote for Phil Davies because he’s helped them out with some issue or other. One gent came up and shook his hand for responding very quickly to a query he’d e-mailed last weekend. As ever, good service matters

Also impressed by how many people are backing Phil because of his positive stance on personal liberty issues – the smoking ban, the unwarranted attack on drinking and the death of the pub.

It was also clear that even those who disagree with Phil respected his consistent, honest and principled stance on various issues

On a personal note, I like Phil even though he and I don’t agree on everything. The way he spoke with my neighbours, addressed a range of questions – general and specific – and was willing to take up the cudgels on behalf of residents was very impressive.

I’ve no idea whether the general response was good, bad or indifferent – although I can say that, if all the constituency gives the same positive feedback as Cullingworth did today, Phil will be back representing us in parliament with a more comfortable majority than the 422 his won by in 2005! Yes, there were Labour voters, there were one or two angry non-voters, a smattering of people planning to switch from Labour to Conservative, a couple of Lib Dems and even one voter switching to Labour because she likes Gordon Brown!

A good days work, I think.

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Do social media campaigns fit the centralised, controlling, presidential party campaign strategies?

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The Institute of Direct Marketing (a fine body of men and women) have commented on the emerging social media campaigns at the election. The gist of the observation is firstly:

“Marketing Week reports social networking sites such as Facebook and Twitter will be primarily used to attack the opposition in the run up to the May 6th polling day.”

And secondly – by way of warning:

“Ivan Ristic, director and co-founder at Diffusion, recently warned that political parties need to be careful in their use of social media during the campaign as there is much less "command and control" of the platform compared to political spin seen in previous eras.”

Which presents an interesting dilemma for the parties given the extent to which they have been trying to direct campaigning centrally. The traditional media demand a centralised campaign as local paper and broadcast media (outside London) has very little impact and the approach adopted by the parties suits this demand. But emerging alternative media – including social media, the world of blogging and specialist publishing – does not fit into this neat paradigm.

The election may – as Iain Dale has observed – have become more “presidential” in nature but alternative media are beginning to shred that cosy, London-centric model. Indeed, twitter, facebook and the blogs are more akin to the old-fashioned street corner soapbox hustings that to the sleek, besuited, controlled media message of the Mandelson-Campbell era in campaigning.

The fall out will be interesting to watch.

Wednesday Whimsy: The Elections - introducing the characters (with apologies to Gary Gygax)

The suggestion has been made that the General Election should be conducted in the style of a role-playing game rather than in the rather old and stale format we currently have (or rather “real time strategy”). I thought that I would provide some pen portraits of the main protagonists.

Gordo the Brown. An aged, half-ogre Priest of Himmelfarb, Gordo has used his powers to overthrow Bliar the Great, the fallen paladin who used to rule. His prime weapons are Nokkya, a powerful throwing block that stuns on impact and Trak Tor Statt, a mighty iron-bound book. Assisting Gordo is Man del Sunny, a half-fairy, half goblin rogue (who many suspect of having designs on Gordo’s job for himself) and the apprentice, Ed who can also wield Trak Tor Statt.


David of the Cameroons. A paladin trained at the school of Eytone, David is protected by the Coat of Bullingdon and arms himself with the great sword of Tone (seized from the hands of Bliar himself) and the Mace of the Baroness. Beside David are Gideon, an apprentice mage of great promise but little charm and Boris the Magnificent, the greatest scholar and illusionist ever (according to his own story).

Clegg O’Hallam. Known as young Nick to most around him, this tyro Priest of Libdemfocus has little skill with weapons but the assistance of a strange yellow bird. His main strength is St Vince, a powerful and holy monk renowned for his doom-laden prophecies and surprising skills as a dancer. St Vince is armed with Ey-tol-uso and Iwuzreyet, paired clubs that may only be wielded by the righteous and holy (or possibly the smug and self-important – the tomes are unclear on this point).

These are the main players but watch out for others – for Gryphin, the evil half-orc streetfighter, for La Lucas, the overweening elven druidess and for Lawd Farage, the chippy old rogue. On the fringes of the battle we might see the barbarian shaman, Salmon and a strange old witch called Esther as well as various supporters of Gordo, David and Clegg. All is set for a great battle indeed!

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Councillor Cooke's draft General Election itinerary

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I’ve been told there’s an election on and have decided – in the interests of research (and getting them elected) – to spend a little time with various Conservative candidates. Not all are standing for parliament, some are local councillors. Most of this will be after 27th April when I am taking time off work for some gentle campaigning.

The people I’ll be supporting (time, money & travel arrangements allowing) – and who you should all support too are:

Glen Miller. Not just because of his name but because he is a very good local councillor in the Worth Valley* (to those with a literary bent that is the area around Haworth and to train buffs has a well-known steam railway). And one of my best friends!

Phil Davies. Partly because he’s my MP (and I’ll expect his support when I’m up for election) but mostly because he’s proved to be one of those voices of sanity on drinking, smoking and personal liberty. He is also this sites official mascot.

Wakey Tory Boy. Otherwise known as Anthony Calvert. Has the task of campaigning to unseat the odious Ed Balls in Morley & Outwood. ‘Nuff said. (Might also nip over to campaign for Nick Pickles whose standing against Ed’s wife in Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford)

Zahid Iqbal. A truly nice guy who will make an independent-minded MP for Bradford West (and the house needs these – especially ones whom understand the property markets).

Val Townend. Councillor for Baildon ward – incredibly hard-working on behalf of her residents, genuinely cares about the communities she represents and is very, very insistant!

Matt Lobley. Another hard-worker (and Chairman of the organisation that employs me) who will do a great job serving people in Leeds North East – including a fair smattering of my wife’s family

Gordon Henderson. Will be the next MP for Sittingbourne & Sheppey – where better that the Kent marches to be an MP! Won’t be a pussy cat when he gets there – like my MP, Gordon’s a fervent eurosceptic and has a penchant for outspoken bluntness. Also a man with a successful business career and impeccable local roots

Iain Lindley. Rather owe Iain support for his running of the Vote UK forum – although god knows what will happen if he gets elected. All us political anoraks with no forum! A tough fight in Worsley & Eccles South but Iain’s got as good a chance as anyone.

I'm happy to consider supporting others - if you're a Tory and can put up a good case for having me turn up to help, just let me know!

Whatever, I'll be blogging a few thoughts on these campaigns.

*political geek point: Worth Valley Ward was once represented by Eric Pickles and contains the birthplaces of the late Bob Cryer and spinmeister, Alistair Campbell.
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Abstentions set to top General Election Poll Again!

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Have avoided writing about polls and such like – partly because while I may be obsessed with them most normal folk are not. But mostly because Anthony Wells does such a great job reporting on them that what I add is usually pretty marginal.

However, I was struck by the front page headline in Metro this morning – “Labour loses third of voters”. Now before you all make jokes about Gordon’s carelessness, let’s look at the body of the report which relates to the findings of a Harris Poll for the paper:

“Just 66 per cent of those who backed labour in 2005 intend to vote for the party now, the research showed. It compared with 86 per cent of Conservative supporters who say they will back the party again. The Liberal Democrats have also shed a third of their 2005 voters according to our poll.”

Let’s be clear, if this is literally true that is over 6 million voters who are switching to a voting behaviour other that that in 2005. Polls suggest that about about 1m additional people are planning on voting Conservative. The Liberal Democrat polling figures are all over the place but the poll reported here puts them down 4 point on 2005 – about 1 million votes. And Labour have dropped about 1.5 million on 2005.

We still have 3 million missing voters – people who will not be voting for the main three parties. The Harris Poll shows “others” at 16% - that’s up about 1.5 million votes. So what’s happened to those other 1.5 million votes – about 6% of the electorate?

My guess is they won’t be voting. Expect turnout to drop to its lowest for some while – probably around 55%.

Looks like the good idiots are on course to top the poll come May!

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Election 2010: Seats to Watch #3: Will the Lib Dems break through in those Northern Cities?

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I’ve looked at two sets of Conservative target seats – in the coalfields and in what I called “inner-outer” London. This set of seats is of Liberal Democrat targets in the North of England – where Labour is defending.

For a long while the Liberal Democrats have had a strong powerbase in Northern cities – at present they control Liverpool, Sheffield, Hull and Newcastle. However, this strength has never translated into success at General Elections. The old Liberal Party got David Alton elected in Liverpool and the party have won Manchester Withington, Sheffield Hallam and Leeds North West. A key test for the Liberal Democrats at the forthcoming election is whether they can translate their local success into the election of MPs.

Liverpool Wavertree will be a seat with a lot of attention – at least judging by the 500+ comments on the UK Polling Report thread on the seat! Labour’s Jane Kennedy held the seat in 2005 but is retiring. Labour’s candidate is from London and with boundary changes the nominal majority is just 3,038 requiring a swing of under 4.5% for the Lib Dems to make the gain. With 54% of the vote in the 2008 local elections they really ought to! Expect a campaign laden with scouse vitriol from all sides (plus a little borderline racism wrapped up as anti-Zionism directed at Labour’s Luciana Berger).

Oldham East & Saddleworth is held for Labour by Phil Woolas, the Immigration Minister – boundary changes favour labour and the nominal majority is 4,087 requiring a swing of 5%. The seat stretches from Oldham’s multiethnic inner suburbs out onto the attractive South Pennine moorlands – factors that meant the old Littleborough & Saddleworth seat was a Tory seat in the 1980s. Will be a close run thing with Lib Dem success depending on how much they can squeeze the substantial Tory vote – local elections suggest win with the Lib Dems on 52% and labour in 3rd with just 20%.

The City of Durham must be right at the top of Liberal Democrat expectations. Although held by labour since the 1930s (like most of the North’s mining seats) the majority is just 3,274 requiring a swing of just 3.7% for a Lib Dem gain). Local elections show the Lib Dems building powerful position with 41% of the vote and 15 of the 22 councillors but there’s no Tory vote to squeeze and Labour has a reliable bedrock of support.

With Nick Clegg looking pretty safe in Hallam, the Liberal Democrats can direct their efforts to Sheffield Central where they have an outside chance of winning especially since former Sports Minister, Richard Caborn is standing down. With boundary changes the notional result is 4,807 requiring an 8% swing. Local election results put the Lib Dems on 42% to Labour’s 30% but an active Green campaign may not do Paul Scriven the council leader any favours.

Newcastle-upon-Tyne North is the most marginal of the City’s seats (just ahead of Chief Whip, Nick Brown’s East) and is very much a long shot for the Liberal Democrats. The notional majority is some 6,744 and even with current MP Doug Henderson retiring it’s a tough call for the Lib Dems. However, their local government performances suggest a strong chance (52% of the vote in 2008 and all but two councillors). However, the Labour machine will be working hard here and it will not be the straightforward gain it seems like on paper.

With a weaker Labour Party and voters out to punish them this may be the year when the Liberal Democrats do break through in the urban North – these aren’t the only places there’s also Bradford East, Burnley and Hull West & Hessle where the party fancies its chances.

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Election 2010: Seats to Watch #2: Harrow and Hounslow

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The ‘inner-outer’ London suburbs used to be pretty safe for the Conservatives but these days this is less true. Indeed, the change in racial demographics in these two boroughs has turned a once marginal place (Hounslow) into an increasingly safe labour area and a once safe Tory borough into an area of key marginals. Put simply, despite the economic success of the Asian communities in these places they retain a disproportionate allegiance to Labour. As with the ‘changing coalfields’ post much of the data comes from UK Polling Report.

Harrow East on the face of it ought to be a dead cert for Bob Blackman the Conservative candidate. A controversial MP in Tony McNulty defending a notional majority of just 2, 647 would seem to imply that Tory target number 56 is in the bag. However, it might not be so simple…not only did Bob Blackman lose the GLA seat to labour but the performance in 2008 was actually worse that the 2006 local council elections. Odds still on a Conservative gain but could be interesting indeed!

Brentford & Isleworth in the LB of Hounslow is a key Conservative target seat won in 2005 by Anne Keen (on expenses) for Labour by 4,411 in 2005. Boundary changes slightly favour the Conservatives and the seat is a fascinating contrast between the emerging yuppiedom of Chiswick and the declining inner suburbs and accompanying Asian population of Hounslow & Isleworth. Although the Conservatives did well in the 2006 local elections they only secured 31% of the poll to Labour’s 26%. The Party did better in the London Mayor and Assembly elections but still fell well short of 40%.

Harrow West was historically the more Conservative of the Borough’s two halves but boundary changes (with the safe Tory area of Pinner joining Rusilip to form a very safe outer London seat) have put an end to this – Gareth Thomas won here for Labour with a majority barely over 2000 but the notional majority for the new boundaries rises to over 7,000. In 2006 the Conservative lead in the local elections was just 4 points (39% Con, 35% Lab) and Labour lead marginally in the London Mayor and Assembly elections.

Feltham & Heston the other half of the LB of Hounslow is a long shot seat for the Conservatives in outer London. Hard up against Heathrow Airport and with a large Asian population this seat gave Alan Keen (on expenses) a majority of 7,760 in 2005. Here though Labour’s local election performance suggests they’ll hang on – in 2006 they got 34% to the Conservatives’ 30% but the Conservatives led very narrowly in the 2008 London Mayoral and Assembly elections.

What will strike you, of course, is how poorly the Conservatives have done in local elections here compared to the Party’s performance in those coalfield seats. For these ‘inner-outer’ London seats the demographic shift is away from the Conservatives making these key targets that much harder to win.

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Election 2010 Seats to Watch #1: The Changing Coalfields

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There will be a great deal of discussion and speculation about the next General Election not least in where the places to watch might be – Tom Finnegan on Mandate set out seven he’ll be watching, for example. In the first of a short series, I’m going to give my take on places to watch – starting with what I call the changing coalfields.

England’s former coalfields are, in the popular mind, the true heartlands of Labour support. Great bastions of socialism providing the core of Labour front benches. Having a mining heritage counts you in good stead in the Party still (maybe I should sign up) and no-one in the media is expecting any change to this, the natural order of things.

Let me tell you a different story by looking at five constituencies with a strong mining heritage where there’s a chance of electing a Conservative MP at the coming General Election.

The Yorkshire Constituency of Wakefield has been a Labour seat since a by-election in 1932 but was only held be the current MP, Mary Creagh with a majority slightly over 5,000 in 2005. Boundary changes favour Labour and UK Polling Report gives a notional 2005 majority of 6,526 requiring a swing of just under 8% for the Conservatives to win. A more recent form guide – the 2008 local election results saw the Conservatives a full 15 percentage points ahead of Labour (45% Con, 30% Lab).

Bassetlaw – in North Nottinghamshire - has, like Wakefield, been a Labour seat since the 1930s. In 2005 John Mann held it for Labour with a majority approaching 11,000. Here though boundary changes favour the Conservatives and the UK Polling Report notional majority is 8,126 – requiring a swing slightly over 8% for a Conservative gain. Again the most recent local election results – the 2009 Nottinghamshire County Council elections – suggest the Conservatives are doing well securing over 50% of the vote in this constituency over 10 points clear of Labour.

North West Leicestershire (where the sitting MP suddenly and sadly died on Boxing Day last year) is a genuine marginal having been Tory-held from 1983 up to 1997. There are no boundary changes and Labour held the seat in 2005 with a majority of just 4,477 – needing a swing well below 5% for a Conservative win. In last year's County Council elections Labour won no wards here and got barely 20% of the vote (just a little ahead of the BNP) with the Conservatives winning over 40%. This is the likeliest of these five seats to change hands especially since David Taylor’s sad death.

Rother Valley is classic South Yorkshire mining country and has returned Labour MPs since before the First World War. Kevin Barron, the sitting MP had a majority of 14,224 in 2005 over the Conservatives. The boundary changes here favour the Conservatives strongly and this is reflected in the last local election results with them pulling nearly 9 points clear of Labour (indeed 9 of Rotherham District’s 10 Conservative councillors are from this seat). That said, the swing needed is nearly 15% on the nominal figures from 2005 so a big call for the Conservatives to win. Expect it to be pretty close though.

Don Valley is in the Yorkshire district of Doncaster and is represented by former Labour cabinet minister, Caroline Flint (who had an 8000+ majority in 2005). Making predictions in Doncaster is always a tricky business these days but Labour got just 26% of the vote in winning a recent by-election in Rossington which should be their strongest area in the constituency. However, with competitive minor parties like the English Democrats and the BNP, it’s really anybody's guess. Certainly worth watching on election night!

The point of featuring these constituencies is to show how demographic change in these largely rural places is making them more Conservative-aligned. At the same time the mining heritage, while still very strong, plays less and less of a political role. The next five constituencies will be places where the opposite is true – where demographics are favouring Labour.

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