For all the (mostly self-appointed) Brexit experts - no-one's listening

People aren't listening to politicians. Or for that matter to newspaper columnists, BBC political reporters, think tank intellectuals, campaigners, and activist university professors. Twitter may be filled with the wit and wisdom of our political debate but nineteen out of twenty people are looking somewhere else. And when we get all huffy and tell them they're stupid for not paying attention they look back at us and tell us - rightly - that we're boring and they're not interested.

I've never watched Love Island but it's hard to avoid it as, on its start, social media explodes with comment, caricature and judgemental tutting. The current crop of attractive but slightly vacuous women on the show had a conversation (more a couple of comments really) about Brexit that has given political Twitter palpitations - from right across the spectrum of opinion this slightly gormless interaction is used to show that the sort of person who goes on Love Island is thick and, for some, that these are the sort of people who voted to leave. It is a veritable festival of snobbery and "OMG how could anyone know so little about Brexit" commentary.

For me it's a reminder that, for most people Brexit is a bit of a sideshow and they really don't see how the different options for leaving, not leaving, half leaving or leaving later are going to make much difference to their lives. We might be fretting over hard or soft, poached or scrambled Brexit, pouring over the latest Westminster bubble gossip, hanging on the words of our favourite pundit, posting coruscating Tweets exposing the idiocy of ministers, but the rest of humanity - normal people - would rather talk about things that matter in their actual lives right now (jobs, love life, football, paying the mortgage, schools and where they'll buy underwear when the local M&S closes).

It's not that people don't think Brexit is important - all the important people have been telling them every day just how really really important Brexit is, after all - but rather that folk can hold that something is important without thinking that spending time fidgeting over the details is a good use of that time. Does anyone think that me knowing the difference between the EEA/EFTA option, the Swiss solution, customs unions and intelligent borders is going to change much about the manner in which the decision is made? So why should I fuss and worry about these details when there are things I can influence, can change and which are directly relevant to my life right now.

It's not a revelation that people aren't paying attention to politics - pollsters have been telling us this for ages - but rather a realisation that politicians and political pundits aren't paying attention either. We carry on deluding ourselves that the great British public (or indeed American, Australian or French public) care about our political obsessions when the truth is that these things whoosh by them like so much white noise. I consider this to be a good thing - politics in a liberal democracy should be less important - but I suspect that the folk inside the bubble or with their noses pressed against that bubble begging for entry will carry on believing they're so much better because they 'understand'. Not like those girls in the Love Island sunshine. Me, I've a feeling those girls have it about right and, whatever, no-one is listening because they've more important things to worry about.

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Opinion polls and the science of the dead cat bounce

There appear to be different opinions about the veracity or otherwise of claims that deceased felines rebound when dropped from a great height. The evidence of large amounts of force on animals suggests more squish than bounce – at least judging from the too frequent roadside evidence. It seems to me however that the propensity for bounce from our dead moggy depends on these factors:

A. Condition of the dead cat
B. Height from which the dead cat falls
C. Nature of the surface below the falling pussy

Using a recent suggested “dead cat bounce” from UK politics let’s examine whether the bounce is real or an illusion. The example is a daily tracking opinion poll on 30th September 2009 (from YouGov) that showed the Conservative lead over Labour down to just 7 percentage points. Coming during Labour’s annual gathering this poll resulted in some excitable comment from Labour supporters and the suggestion (from some perhaps more rightwardly inclined) that even dead cats bounce when dropped from a great height!

Condition of the dead cat. In this case the dead cat is the Labour Party. To be fair the cat’s condition could be quite a lot worse (indeed some are insisting that there are signs of life in the old mog yet) and I doubt whether rigor mortis has set in. So: a) Definitely dead; b) Died recently but no longer warm

Height from which the dead cat has fallen. The highest point for Labour’s opinion poll rating since 2005 was 44% in a YouGov Poll for Channel 4 in September 2007. The poll reported above with a 7 point lead put Labour on 30% and the lowest rating they have received (ignoring the 19% achieved in the real European election) is 23% in a ComRes poll for the Independent only three days earlier on 27th September 2009. A long way down!

Nature of the receiving surface. The fall is I surmise onto the pliant surface of the media as a proxy for the rather rougher and tougher surface of public opinion in general. It seems to me a little like those weird spongy surfaces we find under swings and roundabouts these days. As soon as one lot are down the media switches to talking down the other lot in a frantic and often purile attempt at balance. These surfaces are designed for kids to bounce so we have to conclude that our dead cat will bounce too!

So to conclude:

1. The Labour Party is a cold dead cat but not yet stiff
2. The Party fell a long way – 48% of the political slippery pole’s height
3. The spongy surface of the media (plus wall-to-wall coverage) provided bounce

Dead cats do bounce (ceteris paribus) – and recent polls bear this out as Labour’s poll rating falls back again!