Dave - remember who voted for you and why!

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I’m not going to say anything much about hung parliaments, coalitions and such matters. My main concern – and it’s a big one – is that the worries and concerns of ordinary folk in places like Cullingworth will get shoved aside in just another metropolitan elite stitch-up. If my friends and neighbours are worried about anything it’s certainly not what, whether or how we should have electoral reform. Nor is it the “low carbon economy” – whatever that actually means.

And these voters have just given a massive endorsement to Philip Davies – who campaigned on immigration, crime, personal freedoms and ending political correctness. Yes, those old Tory core issues still matter and provide the distinction for many ordinary voters. And, as I said before these ordinary working folk – employed in the private sector – are becoming the new Tory core vote replacing the professional classes. And if you don’t get this yet look at the places where these people live – look how they voted last Thursday. The big swings to Conservatives were exactly where I said they’d be – places like former mining communities:

Wakefield 6.9% swing; Pontefract, Castleford & Normanton 12.5%; Don Valley 10.6%; Rother Valley 8.0%; Bolsover 11.2%; Derbyshire NE 8.6%; Amber Valley 6.9%; Erewash 10.5%; Leicester NW 12.0%

This pattern repeated itself across much of the North and Midlands – these communities have been let down by Government and are rightly fed up with the endless metropolitan obsession with greenery, processes and what they see as political correctness. These are the people who – at some future election might deliver David Cameron a majority. If their concerns about schools, hospitals, crime and immigration aren’t met – if we fall back on the interests of the comfortably off metropolitan elite then these people will look again at fringe parties, will stop at home or even – god forbid – start voting Labour again.

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Thoughts from Bradford on strategies for a hung parliament

OK, so the worst happens and we get an inconclusive result on May 6th. What’s the deal and how should it be handled? These are some thoughts at least partly informed by ten years of sitting on a ‘hung’ council. Without going into lots of complicated constitutional waffle, the options are as follows:

A minority government formed by one or other of the parties either through getting the support of the second or (in the case of the party with the most MPs) one party abstaining

A coalition of some sort between two (or more parties) – these take a multitude of different forms from formal public agreements to slightly shady backroom fudges. “Governments of National Unity” and such like are merely pompous forms of coalition

The essence of negotiation under these circumstances is as follows:

1. Know your strengths and your limits. The Liberal Democrats have set out their stall which provides strengths but also provides the risk of reneging in order to secure a coalition arrangement

2. Understand the risks of coalition. Joining a coalition as a minority partner means being outvoted all the time – the party only has the ‘nuclear option’ of walking out

3. Appreciate that propping up a minority government can be bad for your popularity. The old Liberal Party discovered this in 1979

4. Don’t try to agree everything at the outset. Again the Liberal Democrats have set out a ‘five point plan’ that contains some specifics (a referendum on electoral reform for example) and some more vague assertions. There is scope for negotiation

5. The deal – whatever arrangement is preferred – is more important than either the detail or who gets which job. Saying Vince Cable has to be chancellor or William Hague has to be foreign secretary sits below the agreement on policy and legislative priorities

6. Be prepared to lose votes and for the party outside the arrangement to look for ‘wedge’ issues aimed at splitting the arrangement. And remember it’s better to lose a vote or have your proposals amended than to lose the ability to propose legislation and act on budgets

If there is to be such and arrangement what might a Tory offer to the Liberal Democrats look like?

1.Putting Gordon Brown back in Downing Street would be a disaster – people voted for change even though they weren’t sure what that change might look like

2. Propose an immediate public review of government finances aimed at identifying the scale of the problem, identifying savings and proposing cuts

3. Agree to a referendum on electoral reform (which I suspect is a non-negotiable Liberal Democrat position) but insist on support for proposals on European referendums

4. Set out a ‘localism’ package combining some of the ideas around ‘free’ schools, changes to local government financing, elected mayors and the system of local elections

5. Scope a “Big Society” plan that gives local activists and others greater power to get change, power or action

6. Insist on rolling back the database state being an absolute priority for action – the Tory deal breaker

Finally, we need to recognise that the hung parliament will mean less legislation since the government can never be assured of support. But also the circumstances place greater powers in parliament – with a smaller legislative programme from government there will be more time to get the detail right, to debate what is happening and for individual members to challenge the hegemony of the whip.

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Why Labour is campaigning for a hung parliament

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I commented a few times that sometime back in 2009, probably after Labour’s train crash autumn conference, they needed to switch strategy. Campaigning for a Labour victory was turning the voters off – people did not want (and still don’t want) another Labour government. I’m sure that all the private polling, focus groups and other research told Brown the same thing – the campaign was off the rails. Labour was heading for oblivion.

But then some bright spark said: “what about a hung parliament?” Once the high command had stopped beating up on this poor spark, they actually asked the question of some voters. And the answer came back – “yes, a hung parliament’s OK. That’s not a Labour government. That’s not Gordon Brown. We’ll vote for that.” Labour’s new strategy was born. Instead of campaigning for a Labour government, they would campaign (surreptitiously) for a “hung parliament”.

And it has worked – the pinko bits of the press love it, the Liberal Democrats love it. The BBC can’t get enough of it. Everywhere you go folk are talking about a hung parliament. The Liberal Democrats have set out their price. And the polls have moved in Labour’s favour as a response. And even the Dark Lord himself has embraced the campaign for a hung parliament:

Lord Mandelson said: "My appeal is to all progressives in the country – to pause and reflect on where their values lie, and to recognise that they have more in common with Labour than with any other party. And that the difference between Labour and the Liberal Democrats is we can form a government and deliver the values progressive people hold."

Labour reckons that they will be able to do a deal with Nick Clegg – after all Gordon’s sold everything else, selling the heart and soul of the Labour Party to keep the keys of Downing Street is nothing! So a referendum on some sort of PR, a job for Nick & Vince and some weasel words about fairness – job done.

Here’s what Cameron should say:

“The future of Britain – our economy, our security and our liberty – is too important to be decided by some shabby deal behind closed doors. The Conservative Party will not compromise on its principles or on the interests of the British people by selling out just for the sake of the keys to Number 10. I say now that we will not enter into any pact with the Liberal Democrats and I urge you to vote for a strong, focused and effective Conservative Government. By trying to vote for a hung parliament, you just vote for five more years of Gordon Brown.”

That should do the trick!

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