Thoughts on The Negotiation...

I've no idea what the final outcome will be in The Negotiation and I'm not sufficiently informed or expert for any speculation to be of much value. I thought, however, I'd make some observations about The Negotiation itself and why it is extremely challenging. Plus why I think the UK government is making a fairly decent fist of the process, even though I would not have adopted the approach they have chosen.

When you or I undertake a negotiation it's normally a pretty straightforward affair even when it involves a significant deal like buying a house. Back when my better and wiser half was negotiating multi-million pound business deals, it was still pretty clear who were the parties involved, information was secure, and the process was conducted with a sense of goodwill and positive intent. None of this applies for The Negotiation.

Let's review.

In simple terms the UK government is negotiating with the EU commission but is doing so on the understanding that any deal is subject to approval by others (British parliament, European parliament, etc, etc.). But the UK government also has to deal with:

An active and well-connected campaign for the negotiation to fail supported by just about every broadcaster and broadsheet newspaper

An opposition party committed to disrupting the process and, it seems, working at least partly in cahoots with the other side in The Negotiation - while offering no strategy of its own

As repeated leaks demonstrate, a civil service that includes people who want the process to collapse

A group within the governing party that is seeking to undermine negotiations either for reasons of supposed principle or, just as commonly, personal ambition

Another party group seeking an impractical resolution that doesn't reflect the realities of the situation or represent UK interests

Direction or attempted direction from parliament, courts and 'expert opinion' that sets out alternative approaches - not in the interests of resolution but for reasons of disruption

A persistent narrative of failure from the media, politicians and commentators - nothing works, all is chaos nothing is right

Non-participant governments (Ireland, Spain) seeking to meet domestic political imperatives through pressure on EU party to negotiations

In this context it's quite remarkable that the UK government has stuck to the basis of its position as set out by the Prime Minister in her speech to Conservative Party Conference in October 2016 - leave the EU including the customs union and single market, negotiate a trade deal with the EU27 that (in the context of leaving) best reflects the interests of British business, industry and consumers.

The UK government may be mistaken in its approach, I'm not qualified to say one way or another, but to say it is unclear, chaotic or confused is simply rubbish. What's unclear, chaotic and confusing is all the chaff, cantreps and tripwires constructed by the list of people in the UK wanting The Negotiation to fail. Plus a constant barrage of negative misinformation from a - mostly ill-informed and partisan - commentariat that wants to paint Britain as useless, the government as incompetent and the whole process as some sort of existential threat to human civilisation.

I may be in a minority of one here but I think, given the unprecedented complexity caused by those who want The Negotiation to fail, the UK government is doing as good a job as can be expected.

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Thoughts from Bradford on strategies for a hung parliament

OK, so the worst happens and we get an inconclusive result on May 6th. What’s the deal and how should it be handled? These are some thoughts at least partly informed by ten years of sitting on a ‘hung’ council. Without going into lots of complicated constitutional waffle, the options are as follows:

A minority government formed by one or other of the parties either through getting the support of the second or (in the case of the party with the most MPs) one party abstaining

A coalition of some sort between two (or more parties) – these take a multitude of different forms from formal public agreements to slightly shady backroom fudges. “Governments of National Unity” and such like are merely pompous forms of coalition

The essence of negotiation under these circumstances is as follows:

1. Know your strengths and your limits. The Liberal Democrats have set out their stall which provides strengths but also provides the risk of reneging in order to secure a coalition arrangement

2. Understand the risks of coalition. Joining a coalition as a minority partner means being outvoted all the time – the party only has the ‘nuclear option’ of walking out

3. Appreciate that propping up a minority government can be bad for your popularity. The old Liberal Party discovered this in 1979

4. Don’t try to agree everything at the outset. Again the Liberal Democrats have set out a ‘five point plan’ that contains some specifics (a referendum on electoral reform for example) and some more vague assertions. There is scope for negotiation

5. The deal – whatever arrangement is preferred – is more important than either the detail or who gets which job. Saying Vince Cable has to be chancellor or William Hague has to be foreign secretary sits below the agreement on policy and legislative priorities

6. Be prepared to lose votes and for the party outside the arrangement to look for ‘wedge’ issues aimed at splitting the arrangement. And remember it’s better to lose a vote or have your proposals amended than to lose the ability to propose legislation and act on budgets

If there is to be such and arrangement what might a Tory offer to the Liberal Democrats look like?

1.Putting Gordon Brown back in Downing Street would be a disaster – people voted for change even though they weren’t sure what that change might look like

2. Propose an immediate public review of government finances aimed at identifying the scale of the problem, identifying savings and proposing cuts

3. Agree to a referendum on electoral reform (which I suspect is a non-negotiable Liberal Democrat position) but insist on support for proposals on European referendums

4. Set out a ‘localism’ package combining some of the ideas around ‘free’ schools, changes to local government financing, elected mayors and the system of local elections

5. Scope a “Big Society” plan that gives local activists and others greater power to get change, power or action

6. Insist on rolling back the database state being an absolute priority for action – the Tory deal breaker

Finally, we need to recognise that the hung parliament will mean less legislation since the government can never be assured of support. But also the circumstances place greater powers in parliament – with a smaller legislative programme from government there will be more time to get the detail right, to debate what is happening and for individual members to challenge the hegemony of the whip.

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